The business is expected to grow significantly in its first three years as it meets the market need for an alternative to local youth-oriented hookah bars. Growth to a second location will occur in the fourth year, financed by the cash reserves of the business.
While the owners will invest substantially in the company, the bulk of the start-up funding will be provided primarily by outside investors, with an additional long-term loan against the assets of the bar. Credit card debt will make up the remainder.
Investors will be provided with 40% of shares for their investment, as the current partners are contributing considerable sweat and financial equity of their own, as well as their specific expertise and credibility as Lebanese-Americans.
We assume that the growth in hookah bar popularity will continue and that the country is ready for a national chain. We assume that anti-smoking lobbyists and anti-Middle Eastern sentiment in the Unites States will not damage the reputation and image of hookah bars.
A projected monthly fixed operating cost is shown in the table below. With this level of fixed cost, break even is expected in the sixth month of operation.
Projected Profit and Loss
Key expenses will include the cost of sales attributed to supplies and raw materials, payroll for the growing staff, marketing to promote the bar in the community, and the bar's rent and depreciation. The bar will show a profit in the first year which will continue to grow. This is expected due to the high gross margins of selling tobacco through hookahs and the type of food and drinks sold.
Projected Cash Flow
The cash flow table and chart show the business becoming cash flow positive within six months of operation. Cash will be retained in the business and invested in short-term holdings in preparation for expansion of the franchise after the third year of operation.
Long-term debt will be paid over the first three years of operation with a grace period for the first six months. Short-term borrowings will be paid over the first year of operations.
Some current assets must be replenished each year, and long-term assets must be replaced beginning in the second year as some equipment ages.
Projected Balance Sheet
The net worth of Arz al-Lubnan Hookah Bar will grow significantly due to relatively low liabilities and high cash reserves as the business prepares for future self-financed expansion.
The business is compared here against Snack and Nonalcoholic Beverage Bars, industry SIC code 5812, NAICS code 722213, with over $1 million in annual revenue. Gross margin is expected to be higher than average due to the premium that can be earned from tobacco sales.
40% of equity will be awarded to investors for their cash contribution, 22% to founders for their cash contribution, and the remaining 38% to owners for their sweat equity. This values the company at $317,500 initially.
Assuming valuations at either a multiple of earnings (10 is reasonable for this industry), or a multiple of sales (2 is reasonable for this industry), the valuation at the end of year 3 of the entire company is around $3.385 million (an average of the two methods of valuation). This yields a significant, 121% internal rate of return for investors. An exit event will be possible when the company raises money for franchising or sells to an existing franchisor at the point of expansion.