Arz al-Lubnan Hookah Bar
Financial Plan
The business is expected to grow significantly in its first three years as it meets the market need for an alternative to local youth-oriented hookah bars. Growth to a second location will occur in the fourth year, financed by the cash reserves of the business.
Start-up Funding
While the owners will invest substantially in the company, the bulk of the start-up funding will be provided primarily by outside investors, with an additional long-term loan against the assets of the bar. Credit card debt will make up the remainder.
Investors will be provided with 40% of shares for their investment, as the current partners are contributing considerable sweat and financial equity of their own, as well as their specific expertise and credibility as Lebanese-Americans.
Start-up Funding | |
Start-up Expenses to Fund | $80,000 |
Start-up Assets to Fund | $175,000 |
Total Funding Required | $255,000 |
Assets | |
Non-cash Assets from Start-up | $135,000 |
Cash Requirements from Start-up | $40,000 |
Additional Cash Raised | $0 |
Cash Balance on Starting Date | $40,000 |
Total Assets | $175,000 |
Liabilities and Capital | |
Liabilities | |
Current Borrowing | $8,000 |
Long-term Liabilities | $50,000 |
Accounts Payable (Outstanding Bills) | $0 |
Other Current Liabilities (interest-free) | $0 |
Total Liabilities | $58,000 |
Capital | |
Planned Investment | |
Sivrihisar Geobekli | $35,000 |
Willusa Geobekli | $35,000 |
Other Investors | $127,000 |
Additional Investment Requirement | $0 |
Total Planned Investment | $197,000 |
Loss at Start-up (Start-up Expenses) | ($80,000) |
Total Capital | $117,000 |
Total Capital and Liabilities | $175,000 |
Total Funding | $255,000 |
Important Assumptions
We assume that the growth in hookah bar popularity will continue and that the country is ready for a national chain. We assume that anti-smoking lobbyists and anti-Middle Eastern sentiment in the Unites States will not damage the reputation and image of hookah bars.
Break-even Analysis
A projected monthly fixed operating cost is shown in the table below. With this level of fixed cost, break even is expected in the sixth month of operation.

Break-even Analysis | |
Monthly Units Break-even | 4,200 |
Monthly Revenue Break-even | $35,279 |
Assumptions: | |
Average Per-Unit Revenue | $8.40 |
Average Per-Unit Variable Cost | $2.28 |
Estimated Monthly Fixed Cost | $25,703 |
Projected Profit and Loss
Key expenses will include the cost of sales attributed to supplies and raw materials, payroll for the growing staff, marketing to promote the bar in the community, and the bar’s rent and depreciation. The bar will show a profit in the first year which will continue to grow. This is expected due to the high gross margins of selling tobacco through hookahs and the type of food and drinks sold.




Pro Forma Profit and Loss | |||
Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | |
Sales | $498,723 | $1,210,000 | $1,710,000 |
Direct Cost of Sales | $135,368 | $327,000 | $465,000 |
Other Costs of Sales | $15,914 | $48,400 | $51,300 |
Total Cost of Sales | $151,282 | $375,400 | $516,300 |
Gross Margin | $347,442 | $834,600 | $1,193,700 |
Gross Margin % | 69.67% | 68.98% | 69.81% |
Expenses | |||
Payroll | $183,600 | $337,000 | $482,000 |
Marketing/Promotion | $44,000 | $55,000 | $75,000 |
Depreciation | $16,800 | $20,000 | $24,000 |
Rent | $24,000 | $2,500 | $26,500 |
Utilities | $3,600 | $4,000 | $4,500 |
Insurance | $2,400 | $2,700 | $3,000 |
Payroll Taxes | $27,540 | $50,550 | $72,300 |
Permit Renewals | $500 | $2,000 | $800 |
Supplies | $6,000 | $15,000 | $25,000 |
Total Operating Expenses | $308,440 | $488,750 | $713,100 |
Profit Before Interest and Taxes | $39,002 | $345,850 | $480,600 |
EBITDA | $55,802 | $365,850 | $504,600 |
Interest Expense | $5,341 | $3,200 | $1,400 |
Taxes Incurred | $10,098 | $102,795 | $143,760 |
Net Profit | $23,562 | $239,855 | $335,440 |
Net Profit/Sales | 4.72% | 19.82% | 19.62% |
Projected Cash Flow
The cash flow table and chart show the business becoming cash flow positive within six months of operation. Cash will be retained in the business and invested in short-term holdings in preparation for expansion of the franchise after the third year of operation.
Long-term debt will be paid over the first three years of operation with a grace period for the first six months. Short-term borrowings will be paid over the first year of operations.
Some current assets must be replenished each year, and long-term assets must be replaced beginning in the second year as some equipment ages.

Pro Forma Cash Flow | |||
Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | |
Cash Received | |||
Cash from Operations | |||
Cash Sales | $498,723 | $1,210,000 | $1,710,000 |
Subtotal Cash from Operations | $498,723 | $1,210,000 | $1,710,000 |
Additional Cash Received | |||
Sales Tax, VAT, HST/GST Received | $44,885 | $108,900 | $153,900 |
New Current Borrowing | $0 | $0 | $0 |
New Other Liabilities (interest-free) | $0 | $0 | $0 |
New Long-term Liabilities | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Sales of Other Current Assets | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Sales of Long-term Assets | $0 | $0 | $0 |
New Investment Received | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Subtotal Cash Received | $543,608 | $1,318,900 | $1,863,900 |
Expenditures | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
Expenditures from Operations | |||
Cash Spending | $183,600 | $337,000 | $482,000 |
Bill Payments | $228,259 | $609,251 | $847,567 |
Subtotal Spent on Operations | $411,859 | $946,251 | $1,329,567 |
Additional Cash Spent | |||
Sales Tax, VAT, HST/GST Paid Out | $44,885 | $108,900 | $153,900 |
Principal Repayment of Current Borrowing | $8,000 | $0 | $0 |
Other Liabilities Principal Repayment | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Long-term Liabilities Principal Repayment | $9,000 | $18,000 | $18,000 |
Purchase Other Current Assets | $2,400 | $3,000 | $3,500 |
Purchase Long-term Assets | $0 | $10,000 | $10,000 |
Dividends | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Subtotal Cash Spent | $476,144 | $1,086,151 | $1,514,967 |
Net Cash Flow | $67,464 | $232,749 | $348,933 |
Cash Balance | $107,464 | $340,213 | $689,146 |
Projected Balance Sheet
The net worth of Arz al-Lubnan Hookah Bar will grow significantly due to relatively low liabilities and high cash reserves as the business prepares for future self-financed expansion.
Pro Forma Balance Sheet | |||
Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | |
Assets | |||
Current Assets | |||
Cash | $107,464 | $340,213 | $689,146 |
Other Current Assets | $42,400 | $45,400 | $48,900 |
Total Current Assets | $149,864 | $385,613 | $738,046 |
Long-term Assets | |||
Long-term Assets | $95,000 | $105,000 | $115,000 |
Accumulated Depreciation | $16,800 | $36,800 | $60,800 |
Total Long-term Assets | $78,200 | $68,200 | $54,200 |
Total Assets | $228,064 | $453,813 | $792,246 |
Liabilities and Capital | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
Current Liabilities | |||
Accounts Payable | $46,502 | $50,395 | $71,388 |
Current Borrowing | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Other Current Liabilities | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Subtotal Current Liabilities | $46,502 | $50,395 | $71,388 |
Long-term Liabilities | $41,000 | $23,000 | $5,000 |
Total Liabilities | $87,502 | $73,395 | $76,388 |
Paid-in Capital | $197,000 | $197,000 | $197,000 |
Retained Earnings | ($80,000) | ($56,438) | $183,417 |
Earnings | $23,562 | $239,855 | $335,440 |
Total Capital | $140,562 | $380,417 | $715,857 |
Total Liabilities and Capital | $228,064 | $453,813 | $792,246 |
Net Worth | $140,562 | $380,417 | $715,857 |
Business Ratios
The business is compared here against Snack and Nonalcoholic Beverage Bars, industry SIC code 5812, NAICS code 722213, with over $1 million in annual revenue. Gross margin is expected to be higher than average due to the premium that can be earned from tobacco sales.
Ratio Analysis | ||||
Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Industry Profile | |
Sales Growth | n.a. | 142.62% | 41.32% | -3.07% |
Percent of Total Assets | ||||
Other Current Assets | 18.59% | 10.00% | 6.17% | 42.36% |
Total Current Assets | 65.71% | 84.97% | 93.16% | 50.54% |
Long-term Assets | 34.29% | 15.03% | 6.84% | 49.46% |
Total Assets | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
Current Liabilities | 20.39% | 11.10% | 9.01% | 24.20% |
Long-term Liabilities | 17.98% | 5.07% | 0.63% | 52.11% |
Total Liabilities | 38.37% | 16.17% | 9.64% | 76.31% |
Net Worth | 61.63% | 83.83% | 90.36% | 23.69% |
Percent of Sales | ||||
Sales | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
Gross Margin | 69.67% | 68.98% | 69.81% | 59.90% |
Selling, General & Administrative Expenses | 64.94% | 49.15% | 50.19% | 24.02% |
Advertising Expenses | 8.82% | 4.55% | 4.39% | 3.24% |
Profit Before Interest and Taxes | 7.82% | 28.58% | 28.11% | 7.73% |
Main Ratios | ||||
Current | 3.22 | 7.65 | 10.34 | 1.10 |
Quick | 3.22 | 7.65 | 10.34 | 0.98 |
Total Debt to Total Assets | 38.37% | 16.17% | 9.64% | 76.31% |
Pre-tax Return on Net Worth | 23.95% | 90.07% | 66.94% | 76.30% |
Pre-tax Return on Assets | 14.76% | 75.50% | 60.49% | 18.08% |
Additional Ratios | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | |
Net Profit Margin | 4.72% | 19.82% | 19.62% | n.a |
Return on Equity | 16.76% | 63.05% | 46.86% | n.a |
Activity Ratios | ||||
Accounts Payable Turnover | 5.91 | 12.17 | 12.17 | n.a |
Payment Days | 27 | 29 | 26 | n.a |
Total Asset Turnover | 2.19 | 2.67 | 2.16 | n.a |
Debt Ratios | ||||
Debt to Net Worth | 0.62 | 0.19 | 0.11 | n.a |
Current Liab. to Liab. | 0.53 | 0.69 | 0.93 | n.a |
Liquidity Ratios | ||||
Net Working Capital | $103,362 | $335,217 | $666,657 | n.a |
Interest Coverage | 7.30 | 108.08 | 343.29 | n.a |
Additional Ratios | ||||
Assets to Sales | 0.46 | 0.38 | 0.46 | n.a |
Current Debt/Total Assets | 20% | 11% | 9% | n.a |
Acid Test | 3.22 | 7.65 | 10.34 | n.a |
Sales/Net Worth | 3.55 | 3.18 | 2.39 | n.a |
Dividend Payout | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | n.a |
Valuation
40% of equity will be awarded to investors for their cash contribution, 22% to founders for their cash contribution, and the remaining 38% to owners for their sweat equity. This values the company at $317,500 initially.
Assuming valuations at either a multiple of earnings (10 is reasonable for this industry), or a multiple of sales (2 is reasonable for this industry), the valuation at the end of year 3 of the entire company is around $3.385 million (an average of the two methods of valuation). This yields a significant, 121% internal rate of return for investors. An exit event will be possible when the company raises money for franchising or sells to an existing franchisor at the point of expansion.
Investment Analysis | ||||
Start | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | |
Initial Investment | ||||
Investment | $197,000 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Dividends | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Ending Valuation | $0 | $0 | $0 | $2,120,400 |
Combination as Income Stream | ($197,000) | $0 | $0 | $2,120,400 |
Percent Equity Acquired | 62% | |||
Net Present Value (NPV) | $1,269,171 | |||
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) | 121% | |||
Assumptions | ||||
Discount Rate | 10.00% | |||
Valuation Earnings Multiple | 10 | 10 | 10 | |
Valuation Sales Multiple | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
Investment (calculated) | $197,000 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Dividends | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
Calculated Earnings-based Valuation | $240,000 | $2,400,000 | $3,350,000 | |
Calculated Sales-based Valuation | $1,000,000 | $2,420,000 | $3,420,000 | |
Calculated Average Valuation | $620,000 | $2,410,000 | $3,385,000 |