Relatively few Web plans are blessed with budgets for professional market research. When you can't pass the problem to professionals, then you have to make some intelligent estimates. Here are some tips and suggestions. First of all, get comfortable with the idea of making good educated guesses. Many people think there is something magic about this, some technique they don't know that the experts learned in graduate school. Don't worry about it.
Having gone through graduate business school and worked as a vice president in a marketing research firm, I can reassure you: sophisticated data analysis rarely works very well for business forecasts. No matter how elaborate the forecasting model, mathematical forecasts are based on past results; nobody can know the future.