- Growth will be moderate to good, cash flows steady with several months of loss in 2001-2002.
- Marketing will remain below 10% of sales.
- The company will invest residual profits (10%) into financial markets and approximately 50% into company expansion for the first year.
8.1 Important Assumptions
We will accept credit cards and trade-ins of any value. Credit cards will have a negative affect on cash flow in that we may not be paid for several days. Trade-ins will also impact cash flow in that they are an asset and have no real value until sold. We will have to limit the number of credit transactions, and only take in quality trades at a wholesale price to facilitate turning a quick profit. The personnel burden is very low because benefits are not paid to part-timers. And the short-term interest rate is extraordinarily low because of current market rates.
We also assume conservative earnings from selling loans and extended warranties will be made.
The other assumption is that current market conditions will remain for the next two to three years. Low rates will have a positive impact on sales and lending for the short term.
| General Assumptions |
| Plan Month |
1 |
2 |
3 |
| Current Interest Rate |
7.00% |
7.00% |
7.00% |
| Long-term Interest Rate |
10.00% |
10.00% |
10.00% |
| Tax Rate |
30.00% |
30.00% |
30.00% |
| Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8.2 Key Financial Indicators
The following chart shows that inventory turnover speeds up as sales increase. This correlation is important when evaluating past inventory control techniques.
8.3 Break-even Analysis
The following break-even analysis table has been completed on the basis of average costs/prices. With average per unit sold costs and average variable costs as shown, the table calculates what we need to make per month, or sell in units, to break even each month.
| Break-even Analysis |
|
|
| Monthly Units Break-even |
18 |
| Monthly Revenue Break-even |
$49,867 |
|
|
| Average Per-Unit Revenue |
$2,821.09 |
| Average Per-Unit Variable Cost |
$1,983.11 |
| Estimated Monthly Fixed Cost |
$14,813 |
8.4 Projected Cash Flow
We are positioning ourselves in the market as a medium risk concern with steady cash flows. Accounts payable is paid at the end of each month, while sales generally in cash give Integrity an excellent cash structure. Initial cash flow in July will be negative, there will be steady increases until October has a negative flow. Again a steady increase in positive cash flow until another slow loss in May. For year 2002-2003 we see a solid overall increase. All cash flow over 50% will be re-invested into the company. At least 10% of which will be invested in long-term assets. We will reserve up to 5% for bonuses, sales awards, and professional training.

| Pro Forma Cash Flow |
|
|
|
|
| Cash from Operations |
|
|
|
| Cash Sales |
$2,488,200 |
$2,750,200 |
$3,027,000 |
| Subtotal Cash from Operations |
$2,488,200 |
$2,750,200 |
$3,027,000 |
|
|
|
|
| Additional Cash Received |
|
|
|
| Sales Tax, VAT, HST/GST Received |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| New Current Borrowing |
$150,000 |
$0 |
$0 |
| New Other Liabilities (interest-free) |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| New Long-term Liabilities |
$30,000 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Sales of Other Current Assets |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Sales of Long-term Assets |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| New Investment Received |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Subtotal Cash Received |
$2,668,200 |
$2,750,200 |
$3,027,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Expenditures from Operations |
|
|
|
| Cash Spending |
$113,350 |
$129,000 |
$147,500 |
| Bill Payments |
$1,969,644 |
$2,181,397 |
$2,251,696 |
| Subtotal Spent on Operations |
$2,082,994 |
$2,310,397 |
$2,399,196 |
|
|
|
|
| Additional Cash Spent |
|
|
|
| Sales Tax, VAT, HST/GST Paid Out |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Principal Repayment of Current Borrowing |
$24,000 |
$24,000 |
$24,000 |
| Other Liabilities Principal Repayment |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Long-term Liabilities Principal Repayment |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Purchase Other Current Assets |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Purchase Long-term Assets |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Dividends |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Subtotal Cash Spent |
$2,106,994 |
$2,334,397 |
$2,423,196 |
|
|
|
|
| Cash Balance |
$629,006 |
$1,044,809 |
$1,648,613 |
8.5 Projected Profit and Loss
The key to increasing overall sales is to focus on acquiring vehicles at, or below, wholesale price. Operating, advertising and consulting costs will increase at a slower rate than sales and profit in the next three years. Normally, a start-up company will operate with negative profits through the first two years. We predict a positive gross margin during 2003, increasing modestly to 2005. This optimistic projection is based on the sales strategy and market analysis. Projected sales will support continued operations, and final success will be based on actual sales and an increasing gross margin.

| Pro Forma Profit and Loss |
| Direct Cost of Sales |
$1,749,100 |
$1,815,500 |
$1,867,000 |
| Production Payroll |
$42,000 |
$50,000 |
$60,000 |
| Other Production Expenses |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Total Cost of Sales |
$1,791,100 |
$1,865,500 |
$1,927,000 |
|
|
|
|
| Gross Margin |
$697,100 |
$884,700 |
$1,100,000 |
| Gross Margin % |
28.02% |
32.17% |
36.34% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sales and Marketing Payroll |
$30,500 |
$35,000 |
$40,000 |
| Advertising/Promotion |
$14,000 |
$5,000 |
$6,000 |
| Web Page Maintenance |
$3,600 |
$2,500 |
$2,600 |
| Cleaning/Maintenance |
$6,600 |
$6,000 |
$6,000 |
| Travel/Auctions |
$3,200 |
$1,000 |
$2,000 |
| Miscellaneous |
$0 |
$1,000 |
$1,000 |
| Total Sales and Marketing Expenses |
$57,900 |
$50,500 |
$57,600 |
| Sales and Marketing % |
2.33% |
1.84% |
1.90% |
|
|
|
|
| General and Administrative Payroll |
$38,850 |
$42,000 |
$45,500 |
| Sales and Marketing and Other Expenses |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Depreciation |
$400 |
$500 |
$600 |
| Leased Equipment |
$1,200 |
$1,500 |
$2,000 |
| Utilities |
$6,000 |
$5,500 |
$6,000 |
| Insurance |
$4,800 |
$5,000 |
$5,500 |
| Rent |
$48,000 |
$48,000 |
$50,000 |
| Payroll Taxes |
$17,003 |
$19,350 |
$22,125 |
| Other General and Administrative Expenses |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Total General and Administrative Expenses |
$116,253 |
$121,850 |
$131,725 |
| General and Administrative % |
4.67% |
4.43% |
4.35% |
|
|
|
|
| Other Payroll |
$2,000 |
$2,000 |
$2,000 |
| Consultants |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Contract/Consultants-Accountant Review Books |
$1,600 |
$1,200 |
$1,200 |
| Total Other Expenses |
$3,600 |
$3,200 |
$3,200 |
| Other % |
0.14% |
0.12% |
0.11% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Profit Before Interest and Taxes |
$519,348 |
$709,150 |
$907,475 |
| EBITDA |
$519,748 |
$709,650 |
$908,075 |
| Interest Expense |
$16,382 |
$17,980 |
$16,300 |
| Taxes Incurred |
$150,890 |
$207,351 |
$267,353 |
|
|
|
|
| Net Profit/Sales |
14.15% |
17.59% |
20.61% |
8.6 Projected Balance Sheet
As you can see in the projected balance sheet, our net worth will rise steadily each month and year. This is an increase in working capital and will fund future projects and expansion.
| Pro Forma Balance Sheet |
|
|
|
|
| Current Assets |
|
|
|
| Cash |
$629,006 |
$1,044,809 |
$1,648,613 |
| Inventory |
$210,100 |
$218,076 |
$224,262 |
| Other Current Assets |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Total Current Assets |
$839,106 |
$1,262,885 |
$1,872,875 |
|
|
|
|
| Long-term Assets |
|
|
|
| Long-term Assets |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Accumulated Depreciation |
$400 |
$900 |
$1,500 |
| Total Long-term Assets |
($400) |
($900) |
($1,500) |
| Total Assets |
$838,706 |
$1,261,985 |
$1,871,375 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Current Liabilities |
|
|
|
| Accounts Payable |
$212,830 |
$176,290 |
$185,857 |
| Current Borrowing |
$226,000 |
$202,000 |
$178,000 |
| Other Current Liabilities |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Subtotal Current Liabilities |
$438,830 |
$378,290 |
$363,857 |
|
|
|
|
| Long-term Liabilities |
$30,000 |
$30,000 |
$30,000 |
| Total Liabilities |
$468,830 |
$408,290 |
$393,857 |
|
|
|
|
| Paid-in Capital |
$30,000 |
$30,000 |
$30,000 |
| Retained Earnings |
($12,200) |
$339,876 |
$823,695 |
| Earnings |
$352,076 |
$483,819 |
$623,823 |
| Total Capital |
$369,876 |
$853,695 |
$1,477,518 |
| Total Liabilities and Capital |
$838,706 |
$1,261,985 |
$1,871,375 |
|
|
|
|
| Net Worth |
$369,876 |
$853,695 |
$1,477,518 |
8.7 Business Ratios
Business ratios for the years of this plan are shown below. Industry profile ratios based on the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code 5521, (NAICS 441120) Used Car Dealers, are shown for comparison.

| Ratio Analysis |
| Sales Growth |
0.00% |
10.53% |
10.06% |
14.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Inventory |
25.05% |
17.28% |
11.98% |
58.90% |
| Other Current Assets |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
28.10% |
| Total Current Assets |
100.05% |
100.07% |
100.08% |
100.00% |
| Long-term Assets |
-0.05% |
-0.07% |
-0.08% |
0.00% |
| Total Assets |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Current Liabilities |
52.32% |
29.98% |
19.44% |
0.00% |
| Long-term Liabilities |
3.58% |
2.38% |
1.60% |
0.00% |
| Total Liabilities |
55.90% |
32.35% |
21.05% |
0.00% |
| Net Worth |
44.10% |
67.65% |
78.95% |
100.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Sales |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
| Gross Margin |
28.02% |
32.17% |
36.34% |
18.90% |
| Selling, General & Administrative Expenses |
13.87% |
15.62% |
15.73% |
10.20% |
| Advertising Expenses |
0.56% |
0.17% |
0.20% |
1.30% |
| Profit Before Interest and Taxes |
20.87% |
25.79% |
29.98% |
1.10% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Current |
1.91 |
3.34 |
5.15 |
1.92 |
| Quick |
1.43 |
2.76 |
4.53 |
0.47 |
| Total Debt to Total Assets |
55.90% |
32.35% |
21.05% |
55.55% |
| Pre-tax Return on Net Worth |
135.98% |
80.96% |
60.32% |
55.55% |
| Pre-tax Return on Assets |
59.97% |
54.77% |
47.62% |
8.90% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Net Profit Margin |
14.15% |
17.59% |
20.61% |
n.a |
| Return on Equity |
95.19% |
56.67% |
42.22% |
n.a |
|
|
|
|
|
| Inventory Turnover |
10.91 |
8.48 |
8.44 |
n.a |
| Accounts Payable Turnover |
10.25 |
12.17 |
12.17 |
n.a |
| Payment Days |
27 |
33 |
29 |
n.a |
| Total Asset Turnover |
2.97 |
2.18 |
1.62 |
n.a |
|
|
|
|
|
| Debt to Net Worth |
1.27 |
0.48 |
0.27 |
n.a |
| Current Liab. to Liab. |
0.94 |
0.93 |
0.92 |
n.a |
|
|
|
|
|
| Net Working Capital |
$400,276 |
$884,595 |
$1,509,018 |
n.a |
| Interest Coverage |
31.70 |
39.44 |
55.67 |
n.a |
|
|
|
|
|
| Assets to Sales |
0.34 |
0.46 |
0.62 |
n.a |
| Current Debt/Total Assets |
52% |
30% |
19% |
n.a |
| Acid Test |
1.43 |
2.76 |
4.53 |
n.a |
| Sales/Net Worth |
6.73 |
3.22 |
2.05 |
n.a |
| Dividend Payout |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
n.a |