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On Target: The Book On Marketing Plans
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When you have past data to call on, use it. Always compare your forecast to past results. Look to the past as a reality check. Understand what's changing and why, and what may remain the same.
Business forecasting is not a pure science. It is more likely to be a matter of common sense, patience, research, and educated guessing than statistical analysis or higher mathematics.
Most people can see the numbers better in charts. Particularly with forecasting, in which common sense and judgement are important inputs, make sure to take a good look at your numbers.
Insufficient information isn't a sufficient reason for not making an educated guess. You have no choice. You're in business. The only thing worse than guessing is not guessing at all.
There is a standard way to calculate average growth rates from your forecast or market data. It is normally called Compound Average Growth Rate (CAGR). You can use it to calculate monthly or annual growth rates from your forecast numbers.
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