As our Break-even Analysis (below) shows, Bright House would need 13 residents per month to break-even at current funding levels. We intend, of course, to do better than this.
7.1 Important Assumptions
A "full" elder care facility is generally 90% to 95% full. Our non-standard model allows us to forecast for full occupancy in the main building, since turnover rates for assisted living residents are expected to be quite low (1-2 per year, at most). The skilled nursing facility, on the other hand, requires a certain number of empty beds to offer the flexibility needed to accommodate shorter stays. We therefore are projecting reaching "capacity" of our eleven-bed facility at 10 full beds.
Our resident monthly prices are based on the current Medicare nursing-hours-per-resident-day rates for our kind of services. Medicare patients are billed at roughly $135/day for nursing care, not including the cost of any medication to be administered by our staff. Our private patients are billed at a slightly higher rate to account for the low Medicare reimbursement rate, but also to pay for the extra benefits they receive as part of living at Bright House. Our rates are roughly 2/3 of our nearest competitors, the difference being made up for in donations, and savings gained through staff retention and the use of highly trained, flexible, Elder Assistants.
The small size of our facility allows us a cost savings on maintenance and grounds.
One other important assumption concerns payables: We have assumed collection days of 60, which averages our private residents' monthly up-front payment, and the typical 60-90 day reimbursement rate from Medicare.
7.2 Key Financial Indicators
We will be closely watching two things:
- Private Resident capacity
- Medicare Billing payment rates and collection days
| Funding Forecast |
| Assisted Living Main Residents |
150 |
150 |
150 |
| Medicare Residents - Skilled Nursing Facility |
94 |
96 |
98 |
| Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Total Units |
244 |
246 |
248 |
|
|
|
|
| Assisted Living Main Residents |
$3,200.00 |
$3,200.00 |
$3,200.00 |
| Medicare Residents - Skilled Nursing Facility |
$4,050.00 |
$4,050.00 |
$4,050.00 |
| Other |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
|
|
|
|
| Assisted Living Main Residents |
$480,000 |
$480,000 |
$480,000 |
| Medicare Residents - Skilled Nursing Facility |
$380,700 |
$388,800 |
$396,900 |
| Other |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Total Funding |
$860,700 |
$868,800 |
$876,900 |
|
|
|
|
| Assisted Living Main Residents |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
| Medicare Residents - Skilled Nursing Facility |
$810.00 |
$931.50 |
$931.50 |
| Other |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
|
|
|
|
| Assisted Living Main Residents |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Medicare Residents - Skilled Nursing Facility |
$76,140 |
$89,424 |
$91,287 |
| Other |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Subtotal Direct Cost of Funding |
$76,140 |
$89,424 |
$91,287 |
7.3 Projected Surplus or Deficit
The projected surplus and deficit follows, below.

| Surplus and Deficit |
| Direct Cost |
$76,140 |
$89,424 |
$91,287 |
| Medical/Clinical Payroll |
$217,125 |
$242,500 |
$245,000 |
| Non-reusable Medical Equipment |
$4,800 |
$5,000 |
$5,000 |
| #NAME? |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Total Direct Cost |
$298,065 |
$336,924 |
$341,287 |
|
|
|
|
| Gross Surplus |
$562,635 |
$531,876 |
$535,613 |
| Gross Surplus % |
65.37% |
61.22% |
61.08% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Caretaking Payroll |
$221,520 |
$223,000 |
$255,000 |
| Groceries |
$16,800 |
$18,000 |
$20,000 |
| Cleaning Supplies |
$1,200 |
$1,200 |
$1,300 |
| Other Caretaking Expenses |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Total Caretaking Expenses |
$239,520 |
$242,200 |
$276,300 |
| Caretaking % |
27.83% |
27.88% |
31.51% |
|
|
|
|
| Administrative Payroll |
$98,400 |
$99,000 |
$100,000 |
| Other Expense Account Name |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Depreciation |
$1,200 |
$1,500 |
$1,800 |
| Property Taxes |
$12,000 |
$13,000 |
$14,000 |
| Utilities |
$24,000 |
$25,000 |
$26,000 |
| Insurance |
$14,400 |
$15,000 |
$15,000 |
| Payroll Taxes |
$82,717 |
$86,925 |
$92,325 |
| Grounds and Building Upkeep |
$4,800 |
$5,000 |
$5,000 |
| Other |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Total Administrative Expenses |
$237,517 |
$245,425 |
$254,125 |
| Administrative % |
27.60% |
28.25% |
28.98% |
|
|
|
|
| Fundraising Payroll |
$14,400 |
$15,000 |
$15,500 |
| Brochures, Marketing |
$800 |
$1,000 |
$500 |
| Fundraising Expenses |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Total Fundraising Expenses |
$15,200 |
$16,000 |
$16,000 |
| Fundraising % |
1.77% |
1.84% |
1.82% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Surplus Before Interest and Taxes |
$70,398 |
$28,251 |
($10,812) |
| EBITDA |
$71,598 |
$29,751 |
($9,012) |
| Interest Expense |
$20,479 |
$17,200 |
$13,450 |
| Taxes Incurred |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
|
|
|
|
| Net Surplus/Funding |
5.80% |
1.27% |
-2.77% |
7.4 Break-even Analysis
The following Break-even Analysis table shows that with our forecasted operating expenses, including personnel, we need to serve 13 residents to cover costs. We plan to reach this fairly conservative goal by the second month of operations (see the Resident Forecast, above).
| Break-even Analysis |
|
|
| Monthly Units Break-even |
13 |
| Monthly Revenue Break-even |
$45,001 |
|
|
| Average Per-Unit Revenue |
$3,527.46 |
| Average Per-Unit Variable Cost |
$312.05 |
| Estimated Monthly Fixed Cost |
$41,020 |
7.5 Projected Cash Flow
Our projected Cash Flow follows. Of special note are plans to sell off two back acres at the far south end of the property in July to local developers who have approached us about planning two large, single-family residences. (Developers' sketches included in appendix.)
Also of note are future fundraising plans: With the help of our Development Officer, we plan fundraising campaigns in years two and three of $35,000 and $40,000, respectively. These funds will contribute to our forecasted long-term loan payments, since we plan to pay off the principal ahead of schedule.
Our projected fundraising goals and anticipated expenses are conservative, including only a modest expected increase in income from residents in years two and three; yet, even at these levels, our plan maintains a healthy, positive cash balance throughout.

| Pro Forma Cash Flow |
|
|
|
|
| Cash from Operations |
|
|
|
| Cash Funding |
$645,525 |
$651,600 |
$657,675 |
| Cash from Receivables |
$173,236 |
$216,805 |
$218,830 |
| Subtotal Cash from Operations |
$818,761 |
$868,405 |
$876,505 |
|
|
|
|
| Additional Cash Received |
|
|
|
| Sales Tax, VAT, HST/GST Received |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| New Current Borrowing |
$5,000 |
$0 |
$0 |
| New Other Liabilities (interest-free) |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| New Long-term Liabilities |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Sales of Other Current Assets |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Sales of Long-term Assets |
$25,000 |
$0 |
$0 |
| New Investment Received |
$0 |
$35,000 |
$40,000 |
| Subtotal Cash Received |
$848,761 |
$903,405 |
$916,505 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Expenditures from Operations |
|
|
|
| Cash Spending |
$551,445 |
$579,500 |
$615,500 |
| Bill Payments |
$237,601 |
$277,935 |
$283,575 |
| Subtotal Spent on Operations |
$789,046 |
$857,435 |
$899,075 |
|
|
|
|
| Additional Cash Spent |
|
|
|
| Sales Tax, VAT, HST/GST Paid Out |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Principal Repayment of Current Borrowing |
$5,500 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Other Liabilities Principal Repayment |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Long-term Liabilities Principal Repayment |
$25,000 |
$35,000 |
$40,000 |
| Purchase Other Current Assets |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Purchase Long-term Assets |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Dividends |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Subtotal Cash Spent |
$819,546 |
$892,435 |
$939,075 |
|
|
|
|
| Cash Balance |
$107,215 |
$118,186 |
$95,616 |
7.6 Projected Balance Sheet
Our Balance Sheet shows a continued high net worth, reflecting the value of our property, facility, and medical and communication assets.
| Pro Forma Balance Sheet |
|
|
|
|
| Current Assets |
|
|
|
| Cash |
$107,215 |
$118,186 |
$95,616 |
| Accounts Receivable |
$41,939 |
$42,334 |
$42,729 |
| Inventory |
$8,100 |
$9,513 |
$9,711 |
| Other Current Assets |
$31,000 |
$31,000 |
$31,000 |
| Total Current Assets |
$188,254 |
$201,033 |
$179,055 |
|
|
|
|
| Long-term Assets |
|
|
|
| Long-term Assets |
$725,000 |
$725,000 |
$725,000 |
| Accumulated Depreciation |
$1,200 |
$2,700 |
$4,500 |
| Total Long-term Assets |
$723,800 |
$722,300 |
$720,500 |
| Total Assets |
$912,054 |
$923,333 |
$899,555 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Current Liabilities |
|
|
|
| Accounts Payable |
$22,635 |
$22,863 |
$23,347 |
| Current Borrowing |
$4,500 |
$4,500 |
$4,500 |
| Other Current Liabilities |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Subtotal Current Liabilities |
$27,135 |
$27,363 |
$27,847 |
|
|
|
|
| Long-term Liabilities |
$185,000 |
$150,000 |
$110,000 |
| Total Liabilities |
$212,135 |
$177,363 |
$137,847 |
|
|
|
|
| Paid-in Capital |
$699,150 |
$734,150 |
$774,150 |
| Accumulated Surplus/Deficit |
($49,150) |
$769 |
$11,820 |
| Surplus/Deficit |
$49,919 |
$11,051 |
($24,262) |
| Total Capital |
$699,919 |
$745,970 |
$761,708 |
| Total Liabilities and Capital |
$912,054 |
$923,333 |
$899,555 |
|
|
|
|
| Net Worth |
$699,919 |
$745,970 |
$761,708 |
7.7 Standard Ratios
The Ratios table which follows shows how we differ in asset and income structure from other continuous care facilities.

| Ratio Analysis |
| Funding Growth |
0.00% |
0.94% |
0.93% |
1.62% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Accounts Receivable |
4.60% |
4.58% |
4.75% |
14.37% |
| Inventory |
0.89% |
1.03% |
1.08% |
0.55% |
| Other Current Assets |
3.40% |
3.36% |
3.45% |
36.74% |
| Total Current Assets |
20.64% |
21.77% |
19.90% |
51.66% |
| Long-term Assets |
79.36% |
78.23% |
80.10% |
48.34% |
| Total Assets |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Current Liabilities |
2.98% |
2.96% |
3.10% |
20.58% |
| Long-term Liabilities |
20.28% |
16.25% |
12.23% |
28.02% |
| Total Liabilities |
23.26% |
19.21% |
15.32% |
48.60% |
| Net Worth |
76.74% |
80.79% |
84.68% |
51.40% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Funding |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
| Gross Surplus |
65.37% |
61.22% |
61.08% |
100.00% |
| Selling, General & Administrative Expenses |
59.57% |
59.95% |
63.85% |
80.78% |
| Advertising Expenses |
1.95% |
2.07% |
2.28% |
0.39% |
| Surplus Before Interest and Taxes |
8.18% |
3.25% |
-1.23% |
2.77% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Current |
6.94 |
7.35 |
6.43 |
1.61 |
| Quick |
6.64 |
7.00 |
6.08 |
1.20 |
| Total Debt to Total Assets |
23.26% |
19.21% |
15.32% |
54.58% |
| Pre-tax Return on Net Worth |
7.13% |
1.48% |
-3.19% |
5.88% |
| Pre-tax Return on Assets |
5.47% |
1.20% |
-2.70% |
12.94% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Net Surplus Margin |
5.80% |
1.27% |
-2.77% |
n.a |
| Return on Equity |
7.13% |
1.48% |
-3.19% |
n.a |
|
|
|
|
|
| Accounts Receivable Turnover |
5.13 |
5.13 |
5.13 |
n.a |
| Collection Days |
57 |
71 |
71 |
n.a |
| Inventory Turnover |
11.82 |
10.15 |
9.50 |
n.a |
| Accounts Payable Turnover |
11.50 |
12.17 |
12.17 |
n.a |
| Payment Days |
27 |
30 |
30 |
n.a |
| Total Asset Turnover |
0.94 |
0.94 |
0.97 |
n.a |
|
|
|
|
|
| Debt to Net Worth |
0.30 |
0.24 |
0.18 |
n.a |
| Current Liab. to Liab. |
0.13 |
0.15 |
0.20 |
n.a |
|
|
|
|
|
| Net Working Capital |
$161,119 |
$173,670 |
$151,208 |
n.a |
| Interest Coverage |
3.44 |
1.64 |
-0.80 |
n.a |
|
|
|
|
|
| Assets to Funding |
1.06 |
1.06 |
1.03 |
n.a |
| Current Debt/Total Assets |
3% |
3% |
3% |
n.a |
| Acid Test |
5.09 |
5.45 |
4.55 |
n.a |
| Funding/Net Worth |
1.23 |
1.16 |
1.15 |
n.a |
| Dividend Payout |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
n.a |