The financial plan shall be essential if we are to meet our objectives. The intention is to finance growth through cash flow.
One of the most important factors will be the payment terms as agreed between the client or customer. We can't push our customers hard on collection days, because they are extremely sensitive and will normally judge us on our terms. However there are certain instances where we will have the bargaining power instead of the customer. Examples include informal traders and actual consumers of our products. Therefore there is need to develop a permanent system of receivables financing mutually agreed between both parties. Hence in the financial plan we intend to have the following:
A fundamental respect for giving our customers value, and for maintaining a healthy and congenial workplace.
Cash flow as first priority, growth second, profits third.
Respect for realistic forecasts, and conservative cash flow and financial management.
Of these only (1) and (3) are flexible.
7.1 Important Assumptions
The financial plan depends on important assumptions, most of which are included in the financial plan as annual assumptions. The monthly assumptions are included in the appendix. From the beginning, we recognize that collection days are critical, but not a factor we can influence easily. At least we are planning on the problem, and dealing with it. Interest rates, tax rates, and personnel burden are based on conservative assumptions.
Some of the more important underlying assumptions are:
We assume a strong economy, without major recession.
We assume, of course, that there are no unforeseen changes in economic policy to make our products and service immediately obsolete.
Other key financial assumptions, including 30-day average collection days, sales entirely on invoice basis including a favorable deposit policy, expenses mainly on a net 30 day basis, 30 days on average for payment of invoices, and present-day interest rates.
General Assumptions
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Plan Month
1
2
3
Current Interest Rate
10.00%
10.00%
10.00%
Long-term Interest Rate
10.00%
10.00%
10.00%
Tax Rate
18.08%
17.00%
18.08%
Other
0
0
0
7.2 Key Financial Indicators
We foresee growth in sales at a faster rate than operating expenses, and a bump in our collection days as we seek to spread the business during start-up.
Collection days are very important. We do not want to let our average collection days get above 30 under any circumstances. This could cause a serious problem with cash flow, because our working capital situation is chronically tight. However, we recognize that we cannot control this factor easily, because of the relationship with our clients.
7.3 Break-even Analysis
Our break-even analysis will be based on running costs, that is costs we shall incur in keeping the business running, including salaries and wages, rent, machine maintenance costs, water and electricity, insurance amongst others. We estimate the company will comfortably exceed the break-even sales volume.
Break-even Analysis
Monthly Revenue Break-even
P16,967
Assumptions:
Average Percent Variable Cost
48%
Estimated Monthly Fixed Cost
P8,766
7.4 Revenue Generation
Baby Nappies World will receive its revenue streams from sales of its diapers and sanitary pads. However we will also look into whether we are able to generate revenue from by-products obtained from manufacturing our main products. Additional research into the above shall be undertaken.
7.5 Expense Forecast
Initial expenses shall not be extremely high considering the fact that the manufacture of our products does not require much electricity (220v) or water. Expenses will be brought about by transport charges incurred in delivering our products to customers, as well as going out on sales calls procuring orders. However the strategy will involve including these charges in the prices of our products. As time progresses we intend to undertake marketing programs to ensure awareness of our existence on the market. Invariably this will result in marketing expenses being incurred.
7.6 Projected Profit and Loss
Our projected profit and loss is shown in the appendix, with sales increasing from more than P748,800 the first year to more than P1,075,200 the second, and P1,142,400 in the third year. We do expect to more than break-even in the first year of operation. As with the break-even, we are projecting very conservatively regarding cost of sales and gross margin. Our cost of sales should be much lower, and gross margin higher, than in this projection.
Pro Forma Profit and Loss
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Sales
P748,800
P1,075,200
P1,142,400
Direct Cost of Sales
P361,920
P389,760
P389,760
Other
P0
P0
P0
Total Cost of Sales
P361,920
P389,760
P389,760
Gross Margin
P386,880
P685,440
P752,640
Gross Margin %
51.67%
63.75%
65.88%
Expenses
Payroll
P43,824
P76,174
P104,661
Sales and Marketing and Other Expenses
P16,200
P20,400
P20,400
Depreciation
P10,800
P10,800
P10,800
Maintenance
P800
P1,000
P800
Utilities
P2,400
P3,000
P4,200
Installation Costs
P600
P0
P0
Insurance
P12,000
P12,000
P14,400
Rent
P12,000
P13,200
P14,520
Payroll Taxes
P6,574
P11,426
P15,699
Other
P0
P0
P0
Total Operating Expenses
P105,198
P148,000
P185,480
Profit Before Interest and Taxes
P281,682
P537,440
P567,160
EBITDA
P292,482
P548,240
P577,960
Interest Expense
P0
P0
P0
Taxes Incurred
P50,552
P91,365
P102,561
Net Profit
P231,130
P446,075
P464,598
Net Profit/Sales
30.87%
41.49%
40.67%
7.7 Projected Cash Flow
Our cash flow is shown in the following chart and table.
Pro Forma Cash Flow
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Cash Received
Cash from Operations
Cash Sales
P187,200
P268,800
P285,600
Cash from Receivables
P462,480
P763,194
P847,905
Subtotal Cash from Operations
P649,680
P1,031,994
P1,133,505
Additional Cash Received
Sales Tax, VAT, HST/GST Received
P0
P0
P0
New Current Borrowing
P0
P0
P0
New Other Liabilities (interest-free)
P0
P0
P0
New Long-term Liabilities
P0
P0
P0
Sales of Other Current Assets
P0
P0
P0
Sales of Long-term Assets
P0
P0
P0
New Investment Received
P9,000
P0
P0
Subtotal Cash Received
P658,680
P1,031,994
P1,133,505
Expenditures
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Expenditures from Operations
Cash Spending
P43,824
P76,174
P104,661
Bill Payments
P455,291
P539,916
P560,907
Subtotal Spent on Operations
P499,115
P616,090
P665,568
Additional Cash Spent
Sales Tax, VAT, HST/GST Paid Out
P0
P0
P0
Principal Repayment of Current Borrowing
P0
P0
P0
Other Liabilities Principal Repayment
P0
P0
P0
Long-term Liabilities Principal Repayment
P0
P0
P0
Purchase Other Current Assets
P0
P0
P0
Purchase Long-term Assets
P0
P0
P0
Dividends
P0
P0
P0
Subtotal Cash Spent
P499,115
P616,090
P665,568
Net Cash Flow
P159,565
P415,904
P467,937
Cash Balance
P196,608
P612,512
P1,080,449
7.8 Projected Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows healthy growth of net worth, and strong financial position. The three-year estimates are included in the appendix.
Pro Forma Balance Sheet
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Assets
Current Assets
Cash
P196,608
P612,512
P1,080,449
Accounts Receivable
P99,120
P142,326
P151,222
Inventory
P35,728
P38,476
P38,476
Other Current Assets
P0
P0
P0
Total Current Assets
P331,456
P793,314
P1,270,146
Long-term Assets
Long-term Assets
P54,277
P54,277
P54,277
Accumulated Depreciation
P10,800
P21,600
P32,400
Total Long-term Assets
P43,477
P32,677
P21,877
Total Assets
P374,933
P825,991
P1,292,023
Liabilities and Capital
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable
P39,803
P44,786
P46,220
Current Borrowing
P0
P0
P0
Other Current Liabilities
P0
P0
P0
Subtotal Current Liabilities
P39,803
P44,786
P46,220
Long-term Liabilities
P0
P0
P0
Total Liabilities
P39,803
P44,786
P46,220
Paid-in Capital
P109,000
P109,000
P109,000
Retained Earnings
(P5,000)
P226,130
P672,205
Earnings
P231,130
P446,075
P464,598
Total Capital
P335,130
P781,205
P1,245,804
Total Liabilities and Capital
P374,933
P825,991
P1,292,023
Net Worth
P335,130
P781,205
P1,245,804
7.9 Business Ratios
Standard business ratios are shown in the following table. The Industry Profile column shows ratios for Standard Industry Code (SIC) 2676, Sanitary Paper Products.
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