The following sections are the financial projections for Fosse COmmercial Contractors for the next three years. These tables represent a conservative estimate of revenues, expenses, and growth. We do not anticipate a significant increase in profits until 2006, as we will need time to penetrate our new market. We plan on basing dividend payouts on overall performance and health of the company and may decide to retain such earnings for future growth.
7.1 Important Assumptions
The following is our estimate of our financial assumptions based on previous experience.
| General Assumptions |
| Plan Month |
1 |
2 |
3 |
| Current Interest Rate |
10.00% |
10.00% |
10.00% |
| Long-term Interest Rate |
10.00% |
10.00% |
10.00% |
| Tax Rate |
30.00% |
30.00% |
30.00% |
| Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7.2 Break-even Analysis
Our break even analysis is based on average monthly fixed costs, which in turn, is based on historical figures, plus our average price per product. This estimate is also based on experience, however because of our wide range of potential projects, its accuracy lessens. The average variable costs are based on industry standards.
| Break-even Analysis |
|
|
| Monthly Revenue Break-even |
$64,451 |
|
|
| Average Percent Variable Cost |
72% |
| Estimated Monthly Fixed Cost |
$18,043 |
7.3 Projected Profit and Loss
The following is our best estimate of future revenues and costs, based on current market trends, past performance, and perceived revenue of our new target market. Readers will note that overall profits are quite low for 2004-2006. This is because we estimate we will be paying higher labor costs immediately and the overall revenues will lag somewhat. We will also have fewer initial clients as we attempt to exert our presence in the commercial contracting market. However, we have anticipated this by buffering ourselves with sufficient cash reserves, and we estimate a significant increase in profitability within five years.
| Pro Forma Profit and Loss |
| Direct Cost of Sales |
$535,525 |
$648,586 |
$734,085 |
| Other Costs of Sales |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Total Cost of Sales |
$535,525 |
$648,586 |
$734,085 |
|
|
|
|
| Gross Margin |
$208,211 |
$231,848 |
$262,410 |
| Gross Margin % |
28.00% |
26.33% |
26.33% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Payroll |
$180,000 |
$180,000 |
$212,400 |
| Sales and Marketing and Other Expenses |
$2,400 |
$2,400 |
$2,400 |
| Depreciation |
$0 |
$1,000 |
$1,000 |
| Rent |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Utilities |
$1,320 |
$1,320 |
$1,600 |
| Insurance |
$3,600 |
$3,800 |
$4,200 |
| Payroll Taxes |
$27,000 |
$27,000 |
$27,000 |
| Other |
$2,200 |
$2,500 |
$3,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Profit Before Interest and Taxes |
($8,309) |
$13,828 |
$10,810 |
| EBITDA |
($8,309) |
$14,828 |
$11,810 |
| Interest Expense |
$3,498 |
$2,964 |
$2,564 |
| Taxes Incurred |
$0 |
$3,259 |
$2,474 |
|
|
|
|
| Net Profit/Sales |
-1.59% |
0.86% |
0.58% |
7.4 Projected Cash Flow
We do not expect to have any serious cash flow problems in the future. We plan on having all short-term debts paid off in 2007 and long-term debts by 2012. The declining cash account during the period covered by this plan, and is to be expected as we build our new customer base. Once we reach a sufficient volume of sales, we will take advantages of economies of scale to decrease costs and improve profit margin.

| Pro Forma Cash Flow |
|
|
|
|
| Cash from Operations |
|
|
|
| Cash Sales |
$483,428 |
$572,282 |
$647,722 |
| Cash from Receivables |
$248,641 |
$301,751 |
$343,339 |
| Subtotal Cash from Operations |
$732,069 |
$874,033 |
$991,061 |
|
|
|
|
| Additional Cash Received |
|
|
|
| Sales Tax, VAT, HST/GST Received |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| New Current Borrowing |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| New Other Liabilities (interest-free) |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| New Long-term Liabilities |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Sales of Other Current Assets |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Sales of Long-term Assets |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| New Investment Received |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Subtotal Cash Received |
$732,069 |
$874,033 |
$991,061 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Expenditures from Operations |
|
|
|
| Cash Spending |
$180,000 |
$180,000 |
$212,400 |
| Bill Payments |
$567,657 |
$667,422 |
$776,115 |
| Subtotal Spent on Operations |
$747,657 |
$847,422 |
$988,515 |
|
|
|
|
| Additional Cash Spent |
|
|
|
| Sales Tax, VAT, HST/GST Paid Out |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Principal Repayment of Current Borrowing |
$5,000 |
$2,000 |
$2,000 |
| Other Liabilities Principal Repayment |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Long-term Liabilities Principal Repayment |
$2,400 |
$2,000 |
$2,000 |
| Purchase Other Current Assets |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Purchase Long-term Assets |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Dividends |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Subtotal Cash Spent |
$755,057 |
$851,422 |
$992,515 |
|
|
|
|
| Cash Balance |
$17,440 |
$40,051 |
$38,596 |
7.5 Projected Balance Sheet
The following is a presentation of assets and liabilities. Because we have low debt, our net worth is higher than other comparable companies.
| Pro Forma Balance Sheet |
|
|
|
|
| Current Assets |
|
|
|
| Cash |
$17,440 |
$40,051 |
$38,596 |
| Accounts Receivable |
$34,824 |
$41,224 |
$46,659 |
| Inventory |
$35,509 |
$43,006 |
$48,676 |
| Other Current Assets |
$37,991 |
$37,991 |
$37,991 |
| Total Current Assets |
$125,764 |
$162,273 |
$171,922 |
|
|
|
|
| Long-term Assets |
|
|
|
| Long-term Assets |
$20,421 |
$20,421 |
$20,421 |
| Accumulated Depreciation |
$8,000 |
$9,000 |
$10,000 |
| Total Long-term Assets |
$12,421 |
$11,421 |
$10,421 |
| Total Assets |
$138,185 |
$173,694 |
$182,343 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Current Liabilities |
|
|
|
| Accounts Payable |
$25,575 |
$57,479 |
$64,355 |
| Current Borrowing |
$15,000 |
$13,000 |
$11,000 |
| Other Current Liabilities |
$21,677 |
$21,677 |
$21,677 |
| Subtotal Current Liabilities |
$62,252 |
$92,156 |
$97,032 |
|
|
|
|
| Long-term Liabilities |
$16,639 |
$14,639 |
$12,639 |
| Total Liabilities |
$78,891 |
$106,795 |
$109,671 |
|
|
|
|
| Paid-in Capital |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Retained Earnings |
$71,101 |
$59,294 |
$66,899 |
| Earnings |
($11,807) |
$7,605 |
$5,773 |
| Total Capital |
$59,294 |
$66,899 |
$72,671 |
| Total Liabilities and Capital |
$138,185 |
$173,694 |
$182,343 |
|
|
|
|
| Net Worth |
$59,294 |
$66,899 |
$72,671 |
7.6 Business Ratios
The following is a presentation of industry standard ratios vs. our own projections. Our SIC industry class is currently Commercial and office building, new construction - 1542.0101. For the most part, we follow the industry averages. We expect to see higher growths than average over the next two years due to our new ventures. Also our company is relatively debt-free, meaning we have higher than average net worth.

| Ratio Analysis |
| Sales Growth |
30.03% |
18.38% |
13.18% |
4.60% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Accounts Receivable |
25.20% |
23.73% |
25.59% |
24.47% |
| Inventory |
25.70% |
24.76% |
26.69% |
26.16% |
| Other Current Assets |
27.49% |
21.87% |
20.83% |
37.01% |
| Total Current Assets |
91.01% |
93.42% |
94.28% |
87.64% |
| Long-term Assets |
8.99% |
6.58% |
5.72% |
12.36% |
| Total Assets |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Current Liabilities |
45.05% |
53.06% |
53.21% |
40.60% |
| Long-term Liabilities |
12.04% |
8.43% |
6.93% |
12.11% |
| Total Liabilities |
57.09% |
61.48% |
60.15% |
52.71% |
| Net Worth |
42.91% |
38.52% |
39.85% |
47.29% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Sales |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
| Gross Margin |
28.00% |
26.33% |
26.33% |
15.22% |
| Selling, General & Administrative Expenses |
29.58% |
25.47% |
25.75% |
7.62% |
| Advertising Expenses |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.24% |
| Profit Before Interest and Taxes |
-1.12% |
1.57% |
1.08% |
1.94% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Current |
2.02 |
1.76 |
1.77 |
1.93 |
| Quick |
1.45 |
1.29 |
1.27 |
0.94 |
| Total Debt to Total Assets |
57.09% |
61.48% |
60.15% |
4.32% |
| Pre-tax Return on Net Worth |
-19.91% |
16.24% |
11.35% |
56.40% |
| Pre-tax Return on Assets |
-8.54% |
6.25% |
4.52% |
9.90% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Net Profit Margin |
-1.59% |
0.86% |
0.58% |
n.a |
| Return on Equity |
-19.91% |
11.37% |
7.94% |
n.a |
|
|
|
|
|
| Accounts Receivable Turnover |
7.47 |
7.47 |
7.47 |
n.a |
| Collection Days |
59 |
45 |
46 |
n.a |
| Inventory Turnover |
10.91 |
16.52 |
16.01 |
n.a |
| Accounts Payable Turnover |
22.20 |
12.17 |
12.17 |
n.a |
| Payment Days |
28 |
22 |
28 |
n.a |
| Total Asset Turnover |
5.38 |
5.07 |
5.46 |
n.a |
|
|
|
|
|
| Debt to Net Worth |
1.33 |
1.60 |
1.51 |
n.a |
| Current Liab. to Liab. |
0.79 |
0.86 |
0.88 |
n.a |
|
|
|
|
|
| Net Working Capital |
$63,512 |
$70,117 |
$74,889 |
n.a |
| Interest Coverage |
-2.38 |
4.67 |
4.22 |
n.a |
|
|
|
|
|
| Assets to Sales |
0.19 |
0.20 |
0.18 |
n.a |
| Current Debt/Total Assets |
45% |
53% |
53% |
n.a |
| Acid Test |
0.89 |
0.85 |
0.79 |
n.a |
| Sales/Net Worth |
12.54 |
13.16 |
13.71 |
n.a |
| Dividend Payout |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
n.a |